If there’s a recession coming, you wouldn’t be able to tell it from Michigan CEOs’ outlook.

More top executives are optimistic about the state’s economy than a half-year ago and expect it to remain stable. Fewer are bullish on the U.S. economy compared with late last year, though they generally remain positive.

That’s according to a survey released Wednesday by Business Leaders for Michigan, which is made up of the leaders of 90 of the state’s largest companies and universities.

The optimism comes amid renewed fear of a forthcoming recession, which has been a hallmark of the post-pandemic economy and proved wrong every time. In July, hiring fell sharply nationally and the U.S. unemployment rate rose for the fourth straight month. 

The survey of BLM members was conducted June 18 through July 15. 

It found that 73% thought the Michigan economy would stay about the same in the next six months, up from 53% in a December survey. Those who believed it would get worse was down to 20% from 34%. Some 7% said it would improve, a drop from 12%.

About 54% said it would remain about the same, down from 73%. Those answering that it would worsen, 24%, represented an increase from 14%. But the percentage who said it would get better rose 10 points, from 12% to 22%.

“Most CEOs are seeing a steady state for Michigan’s economy,” said Jeff Donofrio, the organization’s president and CEO. 

While recent events aren’t necessarily reflected in the survey, he said, the outlook likely is an indicator of broader trends such as cooling inflation, a path to an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, and stabilizing business costs and supply chain disruptions.

“But they also see risks to growth — whether that’s changes in (the) market and just economic growth overall, especially for Michigan,” Donofrio said. “Population growth, economic growth. Will they be able to grow here in the state or will they need to look to places that have better talent availability or customers that they want to serve?” 

The state’s population is projected to grow slowly through 2034, 2.3%, but decline overall, 1.3%, by 2050 despite expected net positive migration. The U.S. population is forecast to rise 8% by 2050.

Donofrio cited a projection of 100,000 fewer people ages 18-65 between 2020 and 2030, risking Michigan’s ability “to even just maintain the jobs that we have today.”

Roughly half of survey respondents said they expected their company’s revenue to increase over the next half-year and approximately a third said it would not change. Another 17% expected revenue to drop.

More than a third, 38%, reported trouble filling positions. Nearly 85% expected their real estate footprint to remain unchanged in the next six months.