The proposed deal values Redfin at $1.75 billion, or $12.50 per share. That represents a healthy 63% premium over the company’s average weighted stock price over the last 30 days, according to a news release, and the acquisition has a total enterprise value of $2.36 billion.
But it also highlights how low the overall housing market has fallen, at least compared to the COVID-19 pandemic-era housing boom of late 2020 and early 2021.
At the company’s peak in February 2021, Redfin shares were trading at over $70 per share, representing a total market value of more than $9 billion. While shares spiked on news of the Rocket deal, the company’s market value Monday was just more than $1.2 billion.
Founded in 2004 and public since 2017, Redfin shares will be exchanged for 0.7926 shares of Rocket Companies Class A common stock upon completion of the deal. The acquisition has been approved by directors at both companies and is subject to approval by Redfin shareholders.
Morgan Stanley is financial adviser for Rocket and Paul Weiss is legal counsel. Goldman Sachs is financial adviser for Redfin and Fenwick is legal counsel.
Rocket executives say the company will benefit from the roughly 50 million monthly visitors to Redfin’s website and its 1 million active purchase and rental listing as well as more than 2,200 real estate agents in 42 states. Rocket, long known for its focus on providing refinancing loans, says the deal is expected to drive growth in the home purchase space.
The deal is also expected to generate more than $60 million in revenue synergies from pairing the company’s financing clients with Redfin real estate agents, and from driving clients working with Redfin agents to Rocket’s mortgage, title and servicing offerings, according to the release.
The release also notes an anticipated $200 million in cost-savings synergies by 2027, but given the size of the proposed combined companies, that’s unlikely to move the needle for most consumers who continue to face high housing costs and elevated interest rates, said Brian Connolly, a real estate-focused business law professor at the University of Michigan’s Ross School of Business.
“If that does happen, it’s going to be hard for a consumer to detect how that’s happening,” Connolly said of proposed cost savings from the deal.
For its part, Redfin has struggled with profitability, losing in excess of $100 million in each of the last two years. The company has a market cap of just less than $1.3 billion, compared with Rocket’s market cap of $28 billion.
Redfin’s stock (NASDAQ: RDFN) was up nearly 70% Monday morning, with shares trading at just less than $10 as of 11 a.m. By comparison, Rocket (NYSE: RKT) shares fell throughout the day and were down more than 16% at 2:50 p.m., with shares at $13.14.
Going forward, the question is whether consumers feel comfortable putting all their proverbial homebuying needs in one basket controlled by one company.
“It’s very hard to connect homebuying with mortgage lending,” Cecala said. “Most people don’t like to commit to a specific lender while shopping for a home.”
At the end of 2024, Rocket stood as the third largest mortgage lender in the country, with about $95.8 billion in originations and 5.8% total market share, per IMF data.
“We really think of this as two data and tech companies sort of coming together to solve an important problem of homeownership,” Rocket CEO Krishna said of the deal.