Until then, brokers and economic developers may be hard up for deals and new jobs. Consider two of the largest known industrial deals in Southeast Michigan this year: Stellantis’ planned 2 million-square-foot Mopar parts distribution center in Van Buren Township and auto supplier Fisher Dynamics’ new 310,000-square-foot factory lease at the former Eastland Center mall site.

Big as they may be, both are consolidations and likely to result in net job loss. The UAW warned that the closure of Mopar plants for the new warehouse, including its longtime home in Center Line, would eliminate more than 200 jobs — an assessment the automaker has not denied.

Though Fisher Dynamics declined to comment on its move from its longtime St. Clair Shores home, consolidations rarely result in job creation. The company recently listed for sale five locations in the Macomb County city, totaling around 290,000 square feet, for $21 million, according to sales listings.

There’s no indication that either of those deals are related to tariffs, but they highlight a general trend in the automotive industry: contraction and cost-cutting. Across the supply base, companies are restructuring and downsizing in response to sales and profit declines, and an impending drop in volumes. S&P Global reduced its light vehicle production outlook in North America by 944,000 units to 14 million in 2025 due to the expected impact of tariffs.

New vehicle sales are expected to decline as prices go up, which many experts say will be inevitable as automakers take on direct tariff costs and those charged on parts and components. While the Trump administration granted a reprieve for USMCA-compliant imports, not all parts are exempt, and the bigger fear for supplier executives is sliding production volumes.

“It’s going to have a profound impact,” Lear CFO Jason Cardew said on a recent call with investment analysts.

While tariffs have not spurred mass layoffs in Michigan, a recent study from the University of Michigan asserts that the import taxes would reduce the state’s employment by 13,000 jobs over the next several years. That would pose more challenges for the auto-reliant economy, which has suffered from a decades-long decline in manufacturing.

The U.S. recorded about 997,300 vehicle manufacturing jobs in April, down 24% year over year, according to the most recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In Michigan, there were 48,400 vehicle manufacturing jobs in April, roughly the same as last year, but the number of parts manufacturing jobs fell about 7% year over year to 113,500.

Across Michigan, splashy clean energy projects backed by Biden-era legislation have been mothballed or delayed due to federal funding uncertainty. For example, GM suspended a hydrogen plant with Piston Automotive at the former State Fairgrounds site in Detroit, while Nel Hydrogen’s ballyhooed $400 million factory in Plymouth appears to have no pulse.

Quentin Messer, CEO of the Michigan Economic Development Corp., said the state continues to see business attraction and expansion activity.

“Are they at the size they were in 2022 or 2023? No, but we’re continuing to see a robust pipeline,” Messer told Crain’s at the Mackinac Policy Conference.

Messer said he is hopeful the Trump administration will get it right for business. Until then, the state must keep working to diversify from its volatile signature auto industry and focus on what it can control — namely, making Michigan more competitive by streamlining permits, re-establishing the R&D credit, delivering more shovel-ready sites and cultivating talent for jobs of the future.

“We haven’t quite figured out that equilibrium at the federal level,” he said. “We have to give them grace, they’re, what, only 120 days in.”

One company seeing the bright side of the new trade policy is Novi-based EV battery manufacturer Our Next Energy Inc. The state-backed startup was hit hard by the EV slowdown and faced a financial crisis, but tariffs and anti-China policy have boosted the appeal of doing business with a homegrown battery maker, said Deeana Ahmed, chief strategy officer for the company.

“Demand is stronger than ever,” she told Crain’s. “The downside is the market … We haven’t seen the capital market open back up. The market wants stability.”

Everyone loves the idea of a manufacturing resurgence, and tariffs can play an important role in resolving unfair trade practices and restoring some balance, D’Eramo said. But it is unrealistic to think that a wholesale reindustrialization in the U.S. is possible or that moves can happen on a dime.

For example, some of Martinrea’s customers have asked the supplier to study the feasibility of bringing back production to the U.S. Some can be moved, but not all of it — 60% of its resins must be imported from Asia or Europe because the tooling doesn’t exist in the U.S., D’Eramo said. Similarly, the company must go overseas to source metal for its brake lines because there is no capacity at the few tin mills operating in the U.S.

“The United States cannot design and build a car in the United States by itself. It is not possible, on all kinds of fronts,” he said.